干旱区研究2012，Vol.29Issue(1)：55-58,4.
Monte-carlo与NNBR模型结合在年降水量预测中的应用
Application of Monte-carlo and NNBR Combination in Predicting Annual Precipitation
摘要
Abstract
In this paper,the Monte-carlo method and the Nearest Neighbor Bootstrap Regressive model was combined to predict annual precipitation in Inner Mongolia based on the 40-year meteorological data observed by Wuyuan Meteorological Station in the study area.The results predicted with the Monte-carlo method can reflect well the randomicity and regularity of precipitation in the study area,but the order of precipitation series cannot be reflected exactly,and there may be a misunderstanding about the predicted series of precipitation.In this paper,the Monte-carlo prediction series was used to resort the predicted series based on the most similar theory,thus the statistical regularity and similarity of precipitation series can be reflected by the predicted series,and the randomicity of individual precipitation series can also be reflected.The test verified that the model is quite rational and applicable.关键词
降水量/预测模型/蒙特卡罗方法（Monte-carlo）/最近邻抽样回归模型（NNBR）/内蒙古Key words
precipitation/prediction model/Monte-carlo method/NNBR model/Inner Mongolia分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
曲武,卢文喜,王喜华,陈继红..Monte-carlo与NNBR模型结合在年降水量预测中的应用[J].干旱区研究,2012,29(1):55-58,4.基金项目
内蒙古自治区地质矿产勘查项目 （）
