管理工程学报2011，Vol.25Issue(4)：96-102,7.
国际性无形技术外溢与中国全要素生产率——基于分位数回归的实证研究
Direct International R&D Spillover and Total Factor Productivity in China: Empirical Research Based on Quantile Regression
摘要
Abstract
In addition domestic R&D investment, China has been relying on international R&D spillovers from the developed country to grow its economy. International spillovers consist of international trade, foreign direct investment (FDI) , and direct ( intangible) spillovers. Intangible spillovers include reverse engineering, students returning from foreign countries, dialog between academic researchers, information exchange through electronic means, academic journals, and international conferences, and so on. Researchers begin paying attention to direct R&D spillovers in addition to trade and FDI.Based on Coe and Helpman's (1995) proposed model, we evaluate the contribution of domestic and direct foreign R&D stocks to the total factor productivity (TFP) of different provinces in China. First evaluation result shows that the elasticity of TFP to the domestic R&D stock is between 0.34 and 0.47. This finding implies that domestic R&D investment is the major source of technological improvement in China. Second evaluation result shows that the elasticity of TFP to the direct foreign R&D stock is 0. 06. This finding implies that direct foreign R&D spillovers have significant impact on TFP. However, its impact on TFP is weaker than that of domestic R&D investment. Third evaluation result shows that the domestic and direct foreign R&D stocks are complementary for TFP growth.The previous research primarily analyzes the effect of technology spillovers on OLS method. These studies have the major limitation that the impact of independent variables (Ivs) on conditional dependent variable (DV) at different locations is assumed to be constant. According to the assumption, the mean estimate of OLS cannot reflect the differential impact of Ivs on the conditional DV at difference locations.Is the impact of direct foreign R&D spillovers on the TFP in thirty provinces constant even though so much provinces heterogeneity exists? The quantile regression helps to answer this question. The results show that when TTP's quantile increases, the elasticity of TFP to direct foreign R&D stocks decreases dramatically from 0. 14 and 0. 02. This indicates that the contribution of direct foreign R&D spillovers to the TFP decreases while the TFP rises. There are two possible reasons for this negative correlation. First, imitative innovation is more difficult in provinces with higher TFP than in those with lower TFP.Second, direct international R&D spillovers have some limitations. Different from technology imports and patents purchases, direct technology spillovers is not effective for developing countries, such as China, to acquire critical technologies. This finding indicates that non-critical and general technological knowledge obtained through direct technology spillovers has higher effect on the growth of TFP in provinces with lower TFP than that in provinces with higher TFP.关键词
无形技术外溢/全要素生产率/分位数回归Key words
direct R&D spillovers/ total factor productivity/ quantile regression分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
蒋仁爱,蔡虹,吴凯..国际性无形技术外溢与中国全要素生产率——基于分位数回归的实证研究[J].管理工程学报,2011,25(4):96-102,7.基金项目
国家自然科学基金资助项目(70672057) （70672057）
教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关资助项目(09JZB0030) （09JZB0030）
