电力系统保护与控制2011，Vol.39Issue(24)：52-57,64,7.
河南电网输电能力可信性风险评估研究
Study on credibility theory-risk evaluation of Henan grid transfer capability
摘要
Abstract
The uncertainty of electrical power load has much effect on power grid's transfer capability. From the point of spreading synthetical load model by State Grid Company, a risk assessment algorithm based on credibility theory for power grid's transfer capability is developed, which is based on the risk source of uncertainty of electrical power load parameter. The risk aroused by uncertainty of electrical power load parameter is investigated, including sensitivity/adaptability analysis of load parameter, grid's transfer capability limit, load parameter's expected value model of fuzzy-random variable, and grid's transfer capability risk assessment. The simulation result of Henan grid indicates that the algorithm can assess the risk of Henan grid's transfer capability from the view of security and economics, and it is important to the security and reliability of Henan grid.关键词
综合负荷模型/灵敏度/可信性理论/不确定性/风险评估Key words
synthetical load model/ sensitivity/ credibility theory/ uncertainty/ risk assessment分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
张晓东,陈迁,余晓鹏,杨军,彭晓涛,方华亮,徐箭,程哲..河南电网输电能力可信性风险评估研究[J].电力系统保护与控制,2011,39(24):52-57,64,7.基金项目
河南省电力公司科技项目资助 （）
