电力系统保护与控制2012，Vol.40Issue(1)：96-100,5.
智能电网环境下采用关联分析和多变量灰色模型的用电量预测
Using relational analysis and multi-variable grey model for electricity demand forecasting in smart grid environment
王允平 1黄殿勋 2熊浩清 3牛元立3
作者信息
- 1. 河南省电力公司商丘供电公司,河南商丘476000
- 2. 河南省电力勘测设计院,河南郑州450007
- 3. 河南省电力公司智能电网研究中心,河南郑州450052
- 折叠
摘要
Abstract
Smart grid brings new challenges to traditional power consumption mode, in this background a novel electricity demand forecasting method is proposed based on grey theory. Firstly, the main factors which influence the electricity consumption are determined by using grey relational analysis, then the multi-variable grey model (MGM) (1, n) is adopted to forecast the electricity demand. This method can reflect the interaction among each factor, and avoid the drawback of traditional GM (1, 1) model that it does not consider the effect of random factors on electricity consumption. The feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method are verified by electricity demand forecasting of one actual power grid. The results show that the method has higher forecasting precision and is applicable to mid-long term electricity demand forecasting.关键词
智能电网/关联分析/多变量灰色模型/用电量预测Key words
smart grid/relational analysis/multi-variable grey model/electricity demand forecasting分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
王允平,黄殿勋,熊浩清,牛元立..智能电网环境下采用关联分析和多变量灰色模型的用电量预测[J].电力系统保护与控制,2012,40(1):96-100,5.
