江西植保Issue(3)：111-114,4.
应用时间序列分析法预测南昌县二化螟发生程度
Prediction of Occurrence Degrees of Chilo suppressalis in Nanchang County Applying Time Series Analysis
摘要
Abstract
Based on the database of Chilo suppressalis occurrence in Nanchang County of Jiangxi Province from 1980 to 2009,Markov chains transition matrix and period extrapolation were applied to predict the occurrence area of Chilo supperssalis in the County.The results showed that the occurrence degree for the insect would be grade two（occurring moderately to slightly） in 2010,namely occurring area will be between 2.98 hm2 and 3.54 hm2.Actually,the occurrence degree did be grade two in this county,which was the same as the prediction.The moth＇s occurrence degrees would be grade 3（occurring moderately） in 2011,i.e.,occurring area will be between 3.55 hm2 and 4.10 hm2.关键词
二化螟/发生面积/预测/时间序列/南昌Key words
Chilo suppressalis/occurrence area/forecast/time series/Nanchang分类
植物保护学引用本文复制引用
金伟,陈伟,魏洪义..应用时间序列分析法预测南昌县二化螟发生程度[J].江西植保,2011,(3):111-114,4.基金项目
江西省教育厅科技项目 （）
江西省农业厅资助项目 （）
