空间科学学报2011，Vol.31Issue(6)：747-753,7.
相似预报法在电离层TEC短期预报中的应用
Application of Analog Prediction Method on Ionospheric TEC Short-term Forecast
摘要
Abstract
Analog Deviation is introduced to evaluate the analog degree between two samples, and tests of Analog Prediction Method for 24h ahead forecast of ionospheric TEC detected by Xiamen station in 2004 have been conducted in this paper. The results reveal that the relative error has good relationship with the geomagnetic activities, and it will be larger under geomagnetically disturbed conditions than undisturbed ones obviously, reaching i00~ indeed; as a whole, the relative error is 18.022%, 44.896% and II.676~0 under conditions of geomagnetic disturbances and undisturbed respectively. The cumulative proportions of relative error under 10%, 20%, 30%, 40% are 38.209%, 65.075%, 84.984% and 90.448% respectively. The Analog Prediction Method is based on the autocorrelation method, with the observed ionospheric TEC to predict, but only choosing the 24, 48, 72 h data which will have best analog with the predictions. The result of forecast will be much more better on condition of using ionospheric TEC in mid-latitude or under geomagnetic undisturbed conditions.关键词
电离层电子总含量/短期预报/相似预报法/相似离度Key words
Ionospheric TEC/Short-term prediction/Analog prediction method/Analog deviation分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
翁利斌,方涵先,解妍琼,杨升高..相似预报法在电离层TEC短期预报中的应用[J].空间科学学报,2011,31(6):747-753,7.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目（40505005）和解放军理工大学气象学院预研基金项目共同资助 （）
