南通大学学报：自然科学版2011，Vol.10Issue(4)：79-82,87,5.
水资源短缺的风险因子识别模型
Risk Factor Identification Model of Water Shortage
摘要
Abstract
Water shortage has been a major factor influencing and restricting the social and economic development in some areas.In order to understand the main risk factors of water shortage and to achieve the purpose of risk control,taking the Beijing municipal water resources data in 1979-2009 for example in this paper,the BP neural network model between the water-deficit and the each factor relation that causes water shortage are established,then the change rate of water-deficit by increasing 1% values of single factors via the newly-built model is calculated,the main risk factors for Beijing municipal water shortage are concluded as follwing tertiary industry,domestic water,treatment-rate of domestic sewage,and rainfall precipitation,etc.The results obtained by the model are in agreement with that by the existing approach,but the present calculation is simpler.关键词
水资源/风险因子/BP神经网络/识别模型Key words
water resources/risk factor/BP neural network/identification model分类
数理科学引用本文复制引用
郭跃华..水资源短缺的风险因子识别模型[J].南通大学学报：自然科学版,2011,10(4):79-82,87,5.基金项目
江苏省教育厅自然科学基金项目 （）
南通大学自然科学专项基金项目 （）
南通大学教学研究项目 （）
