农业工程学报2011，Vol.27Issue(12)：330-336,7.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1002-6819.2011.12.062
基于CA-Markov模型的藉河流域土地利用变化动态模拟
Dynamic simulation of land use change in Jihe watershed based on CA-Markov model
摘要
Abstract
To explore the law of land use change and driving force in Loess hilly-gully area in Jihe watershed, based on the land use data interpretation from remote sensing images in 1995 and 2008, the degree of dynamic change of land use type in Jihe watershed was analyzed by dynamic degree model and spatial analysis model, and distribution of land use spatial patterns in 2022 was forecast by using the CA-Markov model. The results showed that spatial analysis model not only took the conversion process into account but also the spatial expansion process of land use change, so it could more precisely measure the dynamic change rate of land use. The simulation result by the CA-Markov method indicated that, the value of Kappa coefficients of agreement in the whole watershed was 0.9515, and forecasting results were credible. From 2008 to 2022, except for grassland and unused land, trends of land use evolution as well as its rate will keep constant. That is, the area of slope farmland, grassland, water and unused land will continue to reduce in some degree, while terrace, forest land and settlements will present a increasing trend. Because the Loess hilly-gully is a serious soil erosion area, this research is helpful to reinforce the protection of land resource and to enforce the agro-forestry policies of reusing farmland for forestland and grassland, and it is meaningful to serve as a scientific basis for land planning and management.关键词
土地利用/模型/遥感/空间分析模型/CA-Markov模型/藉河流域Key words
land use/ models/ remote sensing/ spatial analysis model/ CA-Markov model/ Jihe watershed分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
王友生,余新晓,贺康宁,李庆云,张由松,宋思铭..基于CA-Markov模型的藉河流域土地利用变化动态模拟[J].农业工程学报,2011,27(12):330-336,7.基金项目
林业公益性行业科研专项(201104005) （201104005）
"十二五"国家科技支撑计划项目(2011BAD38B05) （2011BAD38B05）
国家自然科学基金资助项目(40871136) （40871136）
