气象2011，Vol.37Issue(12)：1498-1503,6.
MODE方法在降水预报检验中的应用分析
The Application Analysis of MODE Method to the Rainfall Forecast Test
摘要
Abstract
Based on the MODE method in the MET packet of WRF,the forecasting abilities of the numerical precipitation products of the BJ-RUC model were objectively verified.Using hourly rainfall observations of automatic weather stations in the flood season from 2008 to 2009,heavy rainfall examples and its main precipitation period were selected,in which the accumulated precipitation of more than two stations is larger than 50 mm in three hours,then according to their circulation patterns and influence systems,these cases are divided into three types,the west coming trough,the low-pressure vortex,and the shear line. The emphasis of verification is put on the main periods in the heavy rainfall and the QPE products of the radar are regarded as live data.The results show that the misses of precipitation from BJ-RUC model are much more than false alarm,the forecast rainfall intensity is weaker than observation and the BJ-RUC model is not good at forecasting precipitation by the west coming trough.This work is aimed at providing references for application and improvement of the BJ-RUC model.关键词
MODE方法/RUC降水/检验/环流形势/分型Key words
MODE（Method for Object-based Diagnostic Evaluation）method/RUC precipitation/verification/circulation pattern/classification分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
尤凤春,王国荣,郭锐,魏东..MODE方法在降水预报检验中的应用分析[J].气象,2011,37(12):1498-1503,6.基金项目
国家“十一五”科技支撑计划重点项目 （）
北京市科学技术委员会绿色通道项目（Z090506016609001）共同资助 （）
