气象2011，Vol.37Issue(12)：1578-1583,6.
湖北省乡镇温度预报方法初探
The Study of Township Temperature Forecast in Hubei Province
摘要
Abstract
To improve fine temperature forcasting,based on the result amending of MM5 by grey dynamic model,and using the temperature interpolation methods with altitude and distance weight,the high and low temperatures in 72 hours at 717 automatic weather stations with 4 meteorological elements in Hubei Province,are forecasted on the basis of the MOS technique and the mesoscale model and tested by observations. The results show that the test score in this method to the stations without historical data is better than that by the mesoscale model and is approximate to that by the MOS technique,thus this method can be used in actual operations.The test also indicates that the forecasting difficulty in northwestern Hubei is the most compared with other areas and is the least in the Jianghan Plain.In this method,the forecasting errors of the lowest temperatue in autumn and spring are more than those in other seasons,and the prediction errors are the smallest in summer.Meanwhile,the trends of low temperature are similar in five areas of Hubei.However,the change trends of maximum temperature forecasting are inconsistent in these areas.关键词
气温预报/MOS方法/中尺度模式/灰色预测模型/气温插值Key words
temperature forecast/MOS technique/mesoscale model/grey prediction model/temperature interpolation分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
黄治勇,张文,陈璇,孟英杰,王继竹..湖北省乡镇温度预报方法初探[J].气象,2011,37(12):1578-1583,6.基金项目
公益性行业（气象）科研专项经费GYHY200906012资助 （）
