热带气象学报2011，Vol.27Issue(6)：877-888,12.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1004-4965.2011.06.011
华南雨日、雨强的气候变化
CLIMATIC VARIATIONS OF WET DAYS AND RAIN INTENSITY IN SOUTH CHINA
摘要
Abstract
Based on the daily precipitation data of 110 observational stations during 1961-2008 in South China, the climatic change and spatial temporal features of wet days, rain intensity and rainfall were studied for their annual and seasonal (e.g., the yearly first and second flood seasons) behavior in South China by using statistical diagnostic methods of empirical orthogonal function, power spectrum function and computing trend coefficients. Results show that the annual mean wet days have declined significantly at a mean rate of 4.8d/(10 a), but the variation trend of mean wet days is not obvious in the yearly first and second flood seasons in South China. As far as the long-term spatial variation trend is concerned, the reduction of annual wet days is the largest in north Guangxi, coastland of South China and Hainan, where the reduction rate is up to 9~17.8 d/10 a, especially in Baisha. The annual mean daily rain intensity increased greatly at a rate of 0.4 mm/(10 ad) but less so in the yearly first and second flood seasons. The largest increase of annual rain intensity is seen in northern Guangxi, coastal South China and Hainan, where the increase rate is up to 0.4-1.1 mm/(10 ·d), with the largest in Wuzhishan and Sanya. The long-term trend variation of wet days is not similar to that of rainfall, but for the most part it is the same as that of rain intensity. The wavelet analysis shows that the changes in wet days and rainfall have significant 2~3 and 3~5 year periods. Rain intensity has significant 2~-3 year periods beginning from 2000. There are three distribution types of wet days, rain intensity and rainfall based on the EOF analyses; the anomaly is either the same throughout the whole area or opposite in the south versus the north or in the east versus the west.关键词
气候变化/雨日/雨强/降水量/华南/EOF/趋势系数Key words
climatic variation/ wet day/ rain intensity/ precipitation/ South China/ empirical orthogonal function/ trend coefficient分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
伍红雨,杜尧东,陈桢华,潘蔚娟,段海来..华南雨日、雨强的气候变化[J].热带气象学报,2011,27(6):877-888,12.基金项目
中国气象局气候变化专项(CCSF-09-11、CCSF-09-03) （CCSF-09-11、CCSF-09-03）
中国适应气候变化项目(ACCC) （ACCC）
广州区域气象中心重点项目(GRMC2007202)共同资助 （GRMC2007202）
