首都师范大学学报（自然科学版）2011，Vol.32Issue(5)：46-51,6.
陕西省能源消费碳排放分析及预测
Carbon Emissions from Energy Consumption and Projections in Shaanxi Province
摘要
Abstract
In recent years, Shaanxi Province is one of the focus provinces in the western development strategy, national economy gets a rapid growth. In order to achieve the " Eleventh Five - Year Plan" and " Twelfth Five - Year Plan" emission reduction task, Shaanxi Province faces enormous challenges. According to the related data of the Shaanxi Province energy consumed and increase of GDP and the changes of the industry structure, this article adopted the carbon emission calculating method for all kinds of energy proposed by IPCC 2006, to analyze the trend of the carbon emission in Shaanxi Province and investigate the effect of the change of energy structure and the industry structure to the carbon emission. And predict the trend of carbon emissions of energy from 2009 to 2020 by Kaya Formula. The study shows the rapid growth of GDP led to the rise in carbon emissions of energy, coal dominated energy structure is the major factor keeps the carbon emission intensity in the high level. Projections of carbon emissions show that the inflection point will occur when per capita GDP to reach 35 OOOyuan. So the article proposes as follows; optimizing the energy structure further, reducing the proportion of the coal type energy, upgrading the industry structure, especially accelerating the development of the tertiary industry, diversifying the energy types by developing new energy using the resource around Shaanxi Province,and so on.关键词
产业结构/能源结构/碳排放/陕西省Key words
industry structure/energy structure/carbon emission/Shaanxi Province分类
资源环境引用本文复制引用
杜笑典,戴尔阜,付华..陕西省能源消费碳排放分析及预测[J].首都师范大学学报（自然科学版）,2011,32(5):46-51,6.基金项目
国家科技支撑计划课题(2008BAH31B01),中国科学院知识创新工程重要方向项目(kzcx2-yw-322-5),国家自然科学基金项目(编号:40830741,41071060,40701009) （2008BAH31B01）
