上海国土资源2011，Vol.32Issue(3)：35-40,6.
新世纪上海地区相对海平面变化影响因素及预测方法
Impact of Multifactors and Prediction Technique of Relative Sea Level in Shanghai
摘要
Abstract
Relative sea level change reported before has been acquired by the global theoretical sea level rise and local land subsidence.New components consist of the relative sea level change by the strong human interventions in the watershed and estuary of Yangtze River for the recent 20 years in Shanghai are concerned in the present paper.These new components are the regional sea level change with an increasing global theoretical sea-level rise,a decreasing land subsidence controlled by the densely high building and subway,and the water level lowering due to the erosion of channel riverbed with the sediment discharge decrease in the Yangtze River estuary caused by large-scale hydraulic engineering as Three-Gauge Dam in the watershed,and then water level change at gauge stations with the width narrowing of estuarine channels by the engineering as land reclamation and deep navigation channel regulation,fresh water reservoir.Nevertheless,impact of these new parameters should be estimated and predicted and then the combined regional relative sea level change could be predicted by a linear regression analysis integrated with grey system proposed by the authors in the Yangtze River estuary in the 21st century.关键词
相对海平面变化/地面沉降/三峡工程/深水航道整治工程/促淤围垦工程/长江口/灰色线性回归组合模型Key words
changes in RSL/land subsidence/Sanxia water conservancy project/deepwater channel regulation projection/the land reclamation projection/the Yangtze River Estuary/grey model with linear regression analysis分类
海洋科学引用本文复制引用
王冬梅,程和琴,张先林,阮仁良..新世纪上海地区相对海平面变化影响因素及预测方法[J].上海国土资源,2011,32(3):35-40,6.基金项目
上海市科学技术委员会科研课题 （）
国家科技部重点实验室专项课题项目 （）
