水力发电学报2011，Vol.30Issue(4)：30-35,6.
基于三角模糊数的水库防洪调度模糊综合风险分析
Comprehensive risk analysis based on triangular fuzzy number for reservoir flood control operation
摘要
Abstract
Reservoir flood control operation is an important issue for optimizing regional water resources allocation and realizing sustainable development of social economy,and risk analysis of the operation provides a decision-making basis for the evaluation of hydrological forecast accuracy and the determination of dynamic limited water level and operation rules.To fully identify and better estimate various risk factors of the operation,a triangular fuzzy number technique was introduced into the risk analysis and a three-steps procedure was adopted.First,the risk identification index was transformed into interval numbers by α-cut set technique at different confidence α,then the risk rate of each interval was calculated,and finally a fuzzy analysis model was developed.Application of this method to Panjiakou reservoir that adopts a scheme of adjustable limited water level shows an upper level value 218.50m during flood season.The proposed method is based on a good physical background and suitable for risk analysis of safe flood resources utilization.关键词
水库防洪调度/风险分析/三角模糊数/α-截集/模糊风险率/随机模拟Key words
reservoir flood control operation/risk analysis/triangular fuzzy number/α-cut set/fuzzy risk rate/stochastic simulation分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
吴成国,王义民,金菊良,王宗志,黄强..基于三角模糊数的水库防洪调度模糊综合风险分析[J].水力发电学报,2011,30(4):30-35,6.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目 （）
“十一五”国家科技支撑计划重点项目 （）
中国气象局成都高原气象实验室基金项目 （）
