水利水电技术2011，Vol.42Issue(11)：1-5,5.
三峡库区水循环要素现状评价及预测
Prediction and evaluation on status of water cycle elements within area of Three Gorges Reservoir
摘要
Abstract
Based on the measured and statistical data concerned, the distributed hydrological model of the Tree Gorges Reservoir is established for evaluating the status of the water cycle within the area of the reservoir, so as to clarify the spatial distribution characteristics of the water cycle elements of precipitation, runoff, etc. Within the area of the reservoir. Furthermore, the climate-mode and the distributed hydrological model are coupled with the statistical downscaling method on the basis of the application of the integrated mean simulated results from several global climate-modes for predicting the variation of the water cycle elements therein under the condition of the future climate change. The study result shows that the spatial distributions of both the annual precipitation and the annual runoff within the area of the Three Gorges Reservoir are relatively even under the status conditions except for very few regions therein; and then it is predicted that the annual mean temperature in the area is to rise by 1. 3 t with the increase of the annual evaporation of 2. 8% , the annual precipitation and annual runoff are to be decreased by 0. 8% and 8. 2% respectively; for which both the decrease of the runoff and the increase of the evaporation are larger than the decrease of the precipitation, therefore, higher requirements are put forward on the integrated water resources management for the area of the Three Gorges Reservoir in the days to come.关键词
三峡库区/分布式水文模型/水循环要素/预测/气候变化Key words
area of Three Gorges Reservoir/ distributed hydrological model/ hydrologic cycle components/ prediction/ climate change分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
丁相毅,周怀东,王宇晖,雷晓辉..三峡库区水循环要素现状评价及预测[J].水利水电技术,2011,42(11):1-5,5.基金项目
国家水体污染控制与治理科技重大专顶(2009ZX07104-001) （2009ZX07104-001）
中国博士后科学基金项目(0135012011) （0135012011）
国家自然科学基金项目(501109223,50939006,51021006,5077974). （501109223,50939006,51021006,5077974）
