水土保持研究2011，Vol.18Issue(5)：91-95,5.
基于马尔柯夫模型的漾濞江流域土地利用变化预测
Prediction of Land Use Change in Yangbijiang River Basin Based on the Markov Model
摘要
Abstract
In order to grasp the land use evolution tendency in Yangbijiang river basin,optimize the land use structure and realize sustainable land use,the remote sensing images in 1990 and 2001 were utilized and the data of land use change were acquired with the help of RS and GIS.By means of Markov model,the corresponding transition probability matrix was confirmed.Then,the mutual transformation and the evolution tendency of the land use were analyzed by the Markov model and the single land use dynamic index.The results showed that the conversion among farmland,woodland and grassland was the most crucial one in various land use form conversions,followed by the conversion of farmland to residential-industrial quarter;the general trend of land use change in Yangbijiang river basin was： the area of woodland would gradually became stable and was still the main land use type,the areas of farmland and grassland were reducing,the areas of water and residential-industrial quarter were increasing steadily;the contradiction between the farmland conservation and the development of city was becoming more and more serious and effective measures should be taken to protect the farmland and promote local sustainable development.关键词
马尔柯夫模型/土地利用/漾濞江流域/遥感/地理信息系统Key words
Markov model/land use/Yangbijiang river basin/RS/GIS分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
王剑,徐美..基于马尔柯夫模型的漾濞江流域土地利用变化预测[J].水土保持研究,2011,18(5):91-95,5.基金项目
国家“973项目”专题 （）
