水土保持研究2011，Vol.18Issue(6)：249-251,3.
郑州市年降水量的ARIMA模型预测
Annual Precipitation Forecasting of Zhengzhou City Based on ARIMA Model
摘要
Abstract
Zhengzhou City is one of serious water shortage cities in China.In order to realize the change state of precipitation,and to provide the basis for the rational development and utilization of water resources,we applied ARIMA model to establish the ARIMA（2,1,2） model for the annual precipitation forecasting of Zhengzhou City.Some works including the data preprocessing,pattern recognition,parameter estimation and model checking have been done before the establishment of this model.The results showed that the forecast of ARIMA（2,1,2） model is exact,the relative error ranges from-6.36% to 0.49%.The model can be used for short-term forecast of annual precipitation.关键词
郑州市/年降水量/ARIMA/预测Key words
Zhengzhou City/annual precipitation/ARIMA/forecasting分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
刘德林..郑州市年降水量的ARIMA模型预测[J].水土保持研究,2011,18(6):249-251,3.基金项目
河南省教育厅自然科学基金 （）
河南理工大学博士基金 （）
河南省政府决策研究招标课题 （）
