生态环境学报2011，Vol.20Issue(12)：1783-1787,5.
东江流域1959-2009年气候变化及其对径流的影响
Climate change and its impact on runoff during 1956-2009 in Dongjiang basin
摘要
Abstract
The change trends of the climate elements including rainfall, evaporation, sunshine, humidity and temperature, etc., were analyzed by using the Mann-Kendall trend analysis statistic method and the meteorological data about 50 years (1959-2009). Shuntian basin is selected as case study, and the runoff variation in this area was calculated by using the modified SCS monthly model under the 36 kinds of future climate change scenarios, which were combined by two meteorological elements, rainfall and evaporation. The results showed that in the past 50 years, compared to the significant increase in temperature, the area rainfall has a insignificant increase, while evaporation, sunshine and moisture expose a reduce tendency in different extents, and relevancy analysis indicate that rainfall which correlation coefficient is biggest among that of all the other climate elements, which is turned out to be the major driver of the change of runoff. The runoff will increase if rainfall increase and evaporation decrease in the future, and the consequence will be opposite when the conversions happen. The growth of the runoff due to rainfall increase is greater than that of growth due to evaporation decrease.关键词
气候变化/径流/SCS/东江流域Key words
Climate change/Runoff/SCS/Dongjiang basin分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
林凯荣,何艳虎,雷旭,陈晓宏..东江流域1959-2009年气候变化及其对径流的影响[J].生态环境学报,2011,20(12):1783-1787,5.基金项目
广东省自然科学基金项目(S2011010001549) （S2011010001549）
国家自然科学基金项目(50809078 （）
50839005) （）
广州市珠江科技新星专项和中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目资助 （）
