物理学报2011，Vol.60Issue(9)：807-817,11.
强对流降水过程动力因子分析和预报研究
Analysis and forecasting of heavy-rainfall event by strong convection
摘要
Abstract
For the case of severe convection occurring in the southern region of North China on July 8, 2009, the three dynamical factors, namely, vertical component of convective vorticity vector, moist thermodynamic advection parameter and wave-activity density are diagnosed. The result shows that the anomalous-value regions of dynamical factors are located mainly in middle and lower troposphere over the strong precipitation area. Since the dynamical factors can effectively describe the synthetical characteristics of strong convective system, such as vertical shear of horizontal wind, advection of potential temperature, vorticity perturbation and baroclinicity of moist atmosphere, they correspond to the observation of 6-h accumulative rainfall in horizontal distribution patterns. Using the 6-h, 12-h, 18-h and 24-h forecasting dataset of U.S. NCEP/NCAR 0.5-Degree GFS, the dynamical factors are calculated to analyze their indications of precipitation forecasting during a longer period. The results show that during June 2 – Oct 1, 2009, the 6-h, 12-h, 18-h and 24-h forecasted dynamical factors each have an indication of strong precipitation. The moist thermodynamic advection parameter suggests that the precipitation is best among the three dynamical factors.关键词
对流涡度矢量垂直分量/湿热力平流参数/波作用密度Key words
vertical component of convective vorticity vector/moist thermodynamic advection parameters/wave-activity density分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
冉令坤,周玉淑,杨文霞..强对流降水过程动力因子分析和预报研究[J].物理学报,2011,60(9):807-817,11.基金项目
灾害天气国家重点实验室基金 （）
公益性行业（气象）科研专项 （）
国家自然科学基金（批准号：40875032和40875002）资助的课题 （）
