物理学报2012，Vol.61Issue(1)：44-52,9.
混合状态下城市快速路交通流短时预测
Short-term traffic flow prediction for multi traffic states on urban expressway network
摘要
Abstract
Short-term traffic flow prediction for multi traffic states on urban expressway network is carried out in this paper.The model for multi traffic states is proposed by integrating the spatial and the temporal distribution characteristics of traffic flow parameters under free traffic,congested traffic and jam traffic respectively.Based on the classical traffic flow conservation equation,the ideology of spatial and temporal dispersions in partial differential equations is adopted to establish short-time traffic flow prediction model. Meanwhile,the impact factors,such as on and off ramp,lane change and road slope are considered,which convenes short-term traffic flow prediction model into short-time traffic flow prediction state space model.Finally,the short-term traffic flow prediction for multi traffic states on urban expressway network is realized.The empirical research shows that compared with the classic ARMA model,the proposed method can not only realize short-term traffic flow prediction for multi traffic states on urban expressway network but also achieve an accuracy of 90.23%.In the same condition,the accuracy of ARMA model is 81%.关键词
交通流短时预测/自由流状态/拥挤流状态/阻塞流状态Key words
short-term traffic flow prediction/free traffic/congested traffic/jam traffic分类
数理科学引用本文复制引用
董春娇,邵春福,诸葛承祥..混合状态下城市快速路交通流短时预测[J].物理学报,2012,61(1):44-52,9.基金项目
国家重点基础研究发展计划 （）
国家自然科学基金 （）
中国发展研究基金会2009年度“通用汽车·中国发展研究青年奖学金” （）
北京交通大学优秀博士生科技创新基金（批准号：141082522）资助的课题~~ （）
