现代电力2012，Vol.29Issue(1)：72-76,5.
基于时序和随机风速模型的含风电场发电系统充裕性评估
Adequacy Evaluation of Power Generation System with Wind Farm Based on Sequential and Stochastic Wind Speed Models
杨轶雷 1姚鹏 1郭小波1
作者信息
- 1. 重庆市电力公司綦南供电局,重庆401420
- 折叠
摘要
Abstract
In this paper, a reliability evaluation model of power generation system with wind farms is presented based on the Monte Carlo simulation approach, which includes the building of sequential and stochastic wind speed models and sequential and non - sequential Monte Carlo simulation model. The proposed models are applied to the Roy Billinton Test System (RBTS). Then four reliability evaluation models are built based on different wind speed model and Monte Carlo models. Such indices as LOLP( Loss of Load Probability), LOLE(Loss of Load Expectation), EENS (Expected Energy not Supplied) and reliability for four reliability evaluation models are analyzed. And the influence of sequential and stochastic wind speed models and sequential and non -sequential Monte Carlo simulation method on the adequacy of system is discussed. At the same time, the impact of such factors as the installed capacity of wind farm and the peak load of system on adequacy index is also analyzed.关键词
蒙特卡洛/风电场/ARMA/Weibull/充裕性评估/风速模型Key words
Monte Carlo/ wind farm/ ARMA/ Weibull/ ad-equacy evaluation/ wind speed model分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
杨轶雷,姚鹏,郭小波..基于时序和随机风速模型的含风电场发电系统充裕性评估[J].现代电力,2012,29(1):72-76,5.
