中国电机工程学报2011，Vol.31Issue(28)：49-56,8.
大规模冰灾对输电系统可靠性的影响分析
Influence of Large-scale Ice Disaster on Transmission System Reliability
摘要
Abstract
Large-scale ice disaster has various negative effects on transmission system reliability. According to the weather model, wind speed, rainfall rate and ice load of transmission lines were calculated. In order to analyze the variation of forced outage rate （FOR） in the ice disaster, the relation between ice load and FOR was obtained by curve fitting. For reflecting the stochastic failure of transmission components in the process of ice load increase, a new mixed Monte Carlo simulation method was presented. When components are in the normal state, state sampling is used to judge whether fault occurs on components. When components fail, state duration sampling is used to calculate repair duration time. Simulation of the IEEE RTS-79 system demonstrates that the proposed method is effective. This simulation result also shows that weather parameters and geographical environment may have great influence on transmission system reliability, especially weather moving speed and alignment of transmission lines.关键词
冰灾/蒙特卡罗模拟/可靠性评估/载冰量/强迫停运率Key words
ice disaster/Monte Carlo simulation/reliability assessment/ice load/forced outage rate （FOR）分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
王建学,张耀,吴思,孙羽..大规模冰灾对输电系统可靠性的影响分析[J].中国电机工程学报,2011,31(28):49-56,8.基金项目
基金项目：国家自然科学基金项目（50807043,50777052). （）
