中国电机工程学报2012，Vol.32Issue(4)：100-107,8.
应用向量误差修正模型的行业电力需求关联分析与负荷预测方法
Correlation Analysis and Forecasting Method on Industrial Electricity Demand Based on Vector Error Correction Model
摘要
Abstract
In recent years,the relation between economic development and energy consumption is toward closer;and industrial restructuring and upgrading get prominent.Therefore,the developing trend and the internal structure of electricity demand vary dramatically and frequently.However,in contrary to its significance,there are not much attentions paid to this area.The common load forecasting methods are no longer applicable when huge changes occurred to the internal industrial structure of electricity demand.In this paper,by referencing vector error correction（VEC） theory in econometrics,analysis on electricity demand of different industries was carried out from two aspects： short-term disturbance correlation and historical continuity correlation.On this basis,a novel mid-term and long-term load forecasting method was proposed.These models and methods effectively identified the correlations between the electricity demands of industries,and improved prediction accuracy by excluding the adverse impacts incurred by severe structural changes.Outcomes of the case study illuminate the effectiveness and applicability of the proposed models and the methods.关键词
电力需求/向量误差修正模型/行业电量关联/负荷预测Key words
electricity demand/vector error correction model/industrial electricity correlation/load forecasting分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
王鹏,陈启鑫,夏清,王宣元..应用向量误差修正模型的行业电力需求关联分析与负荷预测方法[J].中国电机工程学报,2012,32(4):100-107,8.基金项目
教育部高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金(200800030039) （200800030039）
中国博士后科学基金(20100480014) （20100480014）
