中国动物传染病学报2011，Vol.19Issue(4)：81-86,6.
包虫病传播的数学模型及控制策略研究
MATHEMATICAL MODELLING AND CONTROLLING OF ECHINOCOCCOSIS SPREAD
摘要
Abstract
Based on analysis of the epidemic situation and the spread mechanism of echinococcosis, appropriate parameters were selected. The mathematical model of echinococcosis spreading between human beings and livestocks was established by using dynamics methods. The key factors influencing on spread and control of the disease were analyzed. The basic reproductive number was obtained which decides the disease spread or not. If the basic reproductive number was smaller than 1, echinococcosis would be eradicated. If the basic reproductive number was bigger than 1, echinococcosis would become a kind of endemic diseases. The model was simulated numerically using collected and estimated parameters, and the sensitivity of the infection coefficient was analyzed. Two different control measures were compared, and the results indicated that the combination would be better for prevention and control of measures. The model constructed in this research demonstrated the key factors which could influence on spread of echinococcosis, and might be helpful for further establishment of control strategy.关键词
包虫病/基本再生数/局部稳定性/控制策略Key words
Echinococcosis/basic reproductive number/local stability/control strategy分类
数理科学引用本文复制引用
赵瑜,康云..包虫病传播的数学模型及控制策略研究[J].中国动物传染病学报,2011,19(4):81-86,6.基金项目
宁夏自然科学基金项目（NZ10228) （）
宁夏师范学院科研项目（YB2010014) （）
