灾害学2011，Vol.26Issue(4)：24-28,34,6.
珠江流域极端降雨时空演变特征分析
Spatial and Temporal Evolution Characteristics of Extreme Rainfalls in the Pearl River Basin
摘要
Abstract
Three extreme rainfall indexes as the maximum consecutive rainy days (MCP), the maximum number of consecutive rainy days (MCD) and related maximum precipitation intensity (MCI) and the Z index are defined and analyzed based on the daily precipitation data of 42 rain gauging stations in the period of 1960 -2005. The results indicate that: (1) higher/lower MCP, MCD, MCI and Z values are found in the east/west parts of the Pearl River basin. The annual and summer MCP, MCD, MCI and Z values are high in the Pearl River delta, Guilin, Baise and Chongzuo, implying higher flood risk in these regions. No evident changes of MCP, MCD, MCI and Z values can be observed in winter; (2) No significant abrupt behaviors can be identified in these variables; ( 3 ) The spatial distribution of precipitation extremes is in close relations with that of topography. Those areas with higher probability of precipitation extremes are usually surrounded with mountains and may easily trigger mountainous flash floods. In this sense, the results of this study should be of great scientific and practical merits in scientific water resources management and enhancement of human mitigation to natural hazards.关键词
极端降雨/Mann-Kendall分析/时空分布特征/珠江流域Key words
precipitation extremes/Mann-Kendall analysis/spatio-temporal changes/the Pearl River basin分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
彭俊台,张强,陈晓宏,陈永勤..珠江流域极端降雨时空演变特征分析[J].灾害学,2011,26(4):24-28,34,6.基金项目
国家自然科学基金面上项目(41071020) （41071020）
中山大学理工科青年教师重点培育计划项目(2009-37000-1132381) （2009-37000-1132381）
广东省科技厅对外合作项目(2010B050800001) （2010B050800001）
国家自然科学基金重点资助项目(50839005) （50839005）
