安徽农业科学2012，Vol.40Issue(9)：5527-5528,5543,3.
武冈市7～9月日最高气温精细化预报方法研究
Study on Refined Forecast Method of Daily Maximum Temperature in Wugang City from July to September
廖仁国 1吕校华 2刘序林 1何卫晖 1戴传洪1
作者信息
- 1. 湖南省武冈市气象局,湖南武冈422400
- 2. 湖南省邵阳市气象台,湖南邵阳422000
- 折叠
摘要
Abstract
[ Objective ] The aim was to study the refined forecast method of daily highest temperature in Wugang City from July to September. [ Method] By dint of ECMWF mode product and T231 in 2009 and 2010 and daily maximum temperature in the station in corresponding period, multi-factors similar forecast method to select forecast sample, multivariate regression multi-mode integration MOS method, after dynamic corrected mode error and regression error, dynamic forecast equation was concluded to formulate the daily maximum temperature forecast in 24 -120 h in Wugang City from July to September. [ Result]Through selection, error correction, the daily maximum temperature equation in Wugang City from July to September was concluded. Through multiple random sampling, F test was made to pass test with significant test of 0.1. [ Conclusion ] The method integrated domestic and foreign forecast mode, made full use of useful information of many modes, absorbed each others advantages, considered local regional environment, lessen mode and regression error, and improved forecast accuracy.关键词
日最高气温/多模式集成/MOS方法/动态预报方程Key words
Daily maximum temperature/ Multi-mode integration/ MOS method/ Dynamic forecast equation分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
廖仁国,吕校华,刘序林,何卫晖,戴传洪..武冈市7～9月日最高气温精细化预报方法研究[J].安徽农业科学,2012,40(9):5527-5528,5543,3.
