重庆医学2012，Vol.41Issue(13)：1255-1256,1259,3.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1671-8348.2012.13.003
时间序列ARIMA模型在艾滋病疫情预测中的应用
ARIMA model of time series for forecasting epidemic situation of AIDS
摘要
Abstract
Objective To explore the feasibility of auto regressive integrated moving average(ARIMA)model of time series to predict the incidence of AIDS. Methods The ARIMA model was established basing on the data of AIDS incidences in Chongqing during 1993 -2009. Results The model of ARIMA(1,1,1) X (0 ,1,0)12 exactly fitted the incidence of AIDS. The predicting values of incidence in July to December 2009 were consistent with the actual change trend of incidence. Conclusion The ARIMA model can be used to exactly simulate the change trend of the incidence of AIDS in time series, which can provide reference for prevention and control of AIDS.关键词
预测/获得性免疫缺陷综合征/时间序列/ARIMA模型Key words
forecasting/acquired immunode ficiency syndrome/time series/ARIMA model引用本文复制引用
罗静,杨书,张强,王璐..时间序列ARIMA模型在艾滋病疫情预测中的应用[J].重庆医学,2012,41(13):1255-1256,1259,3.基金项目
国家自然科学基金青年基金资助项目(81001295). （81001295）
