大气科学2012，Vol.36Issue(2)：337-349,13.DOI:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2011.11060
影响长江中下游夏季降水的前期潜在预报因子评估
Evaluations of Prior Potential Predictors for the Summer Rainfall in the Middle and Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River
摘要
Abstract
In the framework of impacts of sea-land-atmosphere factors on the following summer rainfall in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River (MLYR), the authors reconstructed 40 factors on the basis of sea surface temperature (SST) , snow depth in the Tibetan Plateau, and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis datasets, and evaluated their possible impacts on the summer rainfall in the MLYR. Firstly, the authors discussed the stability of relationships between these factors and the following summer rainfall in the MLYR before and after 1979. Secondly, the authors selected several important factors by correlation analysis, and discussed the relationship between these factors and East Asian summer monsoon (EASM). In addition, the potential forecast capability of these factors for the summer rainfall in the MLYR was discussed by historical hindcasts. The results suggest that the important winter predictors for the summer rainfall in the MLYR mainly come from the external forcing, such as the SST in Nino3 and Kuroshio Current regions, and the snow depth in Tibetan Plateau. In contrast, the potential spring predictors are almost the general circulation indices, such as Arctic Oscillation (AO), polar vortex, and the western North Pacific subtropical high (WNPSH). Running correlations between these potential predictors and the summer rainfall in the MLYR vary on interdecadal time scale, however, the SST in Kuroshio Current region, the snow depth in the Tibetan Plateau, and the surface air temperature near Lake Baikal show the significant antecedents for summer rainfall in the MLYR by affecting the EASM circulations, and jointly suggest the better forecast capability for the rainfall anomaly in the MLYR after 1979.关键词
潜在预报因子/长江中下游降水/预报能力Key words
potential predictor/ summer rainfall in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River/ forecast capability分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
郭玲,何金海,祝从文..影响长江中下游夏季降水的前期潜在预报因子评估[J].大气科学,2012,36(2):337-349,13.基金项目
中国气象科学研究院重点基础科研项目2010Z001、2010Z003,国家自然基金资助项目40921003,公益性行业(气象)科研专项GYHY200906017、GYHY200706005,中国科学院战略性先导科技专项——应对气候变化的碳收支认证及相关问题(XDA05090408) （气象）
