干旱区地理2011，Vol.34Issue(4)：591-595,5.
基于灰色自记忆模型的城市月需水量预测
Forecasting monthly city water demand with gray self-memory model
摘要
Abstract
With a gray differential equation as its core, the gray-self memory model is widely used in hydro-meteor-ologic prediction, when the phenomena, such as river runoff, precipitation, evaporation etc. Have long-term observed data series. In this study it is applied to simulate and predict the urban water demand for the first time. Bao-ji is the second large city of Shaanxi Province facing the water shortage blocking its social and economic development. In order to realize the rational and efficient use of limited water resources, it is necessary to predict the water demand based on the characteristics of water supply and demand of the city. The montihly water use data from 2000 to 2009 are used to establish model, of which the data from 2000 to 2008, totally 108 samples as the found of the model, and the data from the year 2009, totally 12 samples as prediction validation data. The monthly water use data should be smoothed first, because they have the feature of seasonal fluctuation. And after prediction is made, the results should be restored to the original mode. It is shown by case study that the presented method is simple and practical, and the simulation and predict results are rather satisfactory. The relative error of gray self-memory model is blow 10% , with the average relative error of 5.74% , the average relative error of gray GM (1,1) model is 8.77% , and the average error of gray GM (1,1) model with data untreated by seasonal exponent method is 10. 47%. This can be.seen that the accuracy of the gray self-memory model is better than that of gray GM (1,1) model. So the gray self-memory model used to predict urban water demand is successful and effectual, and it can give some valuable reference to water supply planning. The gray self-memory model used in the field of urban water demand prediction may enhance the technology in balancing the water supply and demand.关键词
月需水量/灰色理论/自记忆方程Key words
monthly water demand/ gray theory/ self-memory equation分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
段海妮,莫淑红,沈冰,韩海军,张高锋,王积科..基于灰色自记忆模型的城市月需水量预测[J].干旱区地理,2011,34(4):591-595,5.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(50779052) （50779052）
陕西省教育厅重点实验室研究计划(08JZ55) （08JZ55）
陕西省自然科学基础研究计划(2010JMS001) （2010JMS001）
