干旱区地理2011，Vol.34Issue(6)：958-966,9.
多源降水数据在澜沧江-湄公河流域的比较研究
Comparison of different precipitation datasets in Lancang- Mekong River basin
摘要
Abstract
The Lancang - Mekong River, known in China as the Lancangjiang, begins its course at an altitude of approximately 4 500 meters in the Qinghai - Tibet Plateau. After traveling some 4 500 kilometers across six countries it empties into the South China Sea through its wide and muddy delta in Vietnam. Measured by runoff, the Lancang - Mekong river is the tenth largest river system in the world and the most important international river in this area, draining a watershed of nearly 800 000 square kilometers and some 60 million people, many of whom depend directly on the river for their livelihood. With the global wanning and the fast development of the regional cooperation actions in economy such as the economic cooperation in Lancang - Mekong river subregion in last several decades, the changes, either from climate or from economy influencing the water resource system in this drainage basin have become the focus of the attention and hotspot of research from meteorology, economy, hydrology and other fields internationally. In order to investigate the basic facts which the climate change influence on the hydrological and water ecological environment variations of the Lancang - Mekong river basin, we should understand the regularity of precipitation in this region firstly, which is the most important component in the water cycle. In thispaper, we analyzed and compared temporal and spatial characteristics of changes of annual and seasonal mean precipitation derived from several different gridded precipitation data and observation data in the Lancang River basin and the whole Lancang - Mekong River basin. The gridded precipitation datasets include GPCP data, CMAP data, CRU data, Xie - Arkin data, which are all datasets recongnized by most researchers from several fields. The results show that there is a lot of differences in the mean value and variable ratios of precipitation data from different sources, but they all showed an increasing trend after 1979, which is consistent in both the Lancang - Mekong River basin and the Lancang River basin. By the comparing analysis, we found that in the Lancang River basin, using the Xie - Arkin and CRU precipitation data to analyze the annual precipitation series was more adaptive than using the other precipitation data. While for seasonal precipitation changes, we should choose Xie - Arkin precipitation data to analysis the spring and autumn precipitation, and for the summer and winter precipitation, the results from CRU data were more closer to the observation results. For the spatial distribution patterns, the precipitation from various datasets could all show the increasing trend from the upstream to the downstream. CRU precipitation data could catch more detail of spatial distribution than other precipitation data because of his high spatial resolution. After correlation analysis, we found there was a very good correlation between annual runoff and annual precipitation which far exceeded the 99% level for reliability test with the correlation coefficient greater than 0. 7 (46 samples). Basing on the relationship we established the unary linear regression equation between the observation precipitation data and runoff of the Jiuzhou station upstream and Yunjinghong station downstream in Lancang River, we can provide a good runoff prediction by using the above unary linear regression model only with precipitation data.关键词
澜沧江-湄公河流域/降水/径流量Key words
Lancang - Mekong River basin/ precipitation/ runoff分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
刘波,肖子牛..多源降水数据在澜沧江-湄公河流域的比较研究[J].干旱区地理,2011,34(6):958-966,9.基金项目
中国气象局2009年气候变化专项“气候变化对澜沧江-湄公河流域水资源的影响”(CCSF-09-18)资助 （CCSF-09-18）
