棉花学报2012，Vol.24Issue(1)：52-61,10.
基于COSIM模型的棉花冷害预测研究
Forecasting Cotton Chilling Damage Based on COSIM
摘要
Abstract
Forecasting cotton chilling damage in Xinjiang Province, China, helps to defend against damage and mitigate its influence. Cotton growth in Shihezi, Xinjiang Province, 1961 to 2005, and in Kashi, Xinjiang Province, 1961 to 2009, was simulated using the cotton growth model COSIM. Statistical methods were applied to analyze the simulation. Boll opening date and cotton biomass on July 1st, August 1st, and September 1st were positively linearly correlated with cotton chilling damage. Priority degree evaluation of chilling damage indexes were carried out based on the ratio of correct forecasts, the ratio of missing forecasts, and the ratio of wrong forecasts. Evaluation indicated that the boll opening date, the growth index on July 1st, the proportion of leaf weight on August 1st in total dry weight, and the weight of reproductive organs on September 1st could be used as indexes for cotton chilling damage forecasting in Xinjiang Province.关键词
棉花/COSIM模型/指标/冷害/预测Key words
cotton/ COSIM model/ index/ chilling damage/ forecast分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
王雪姣,潘学标,陈超,龙步菊..基于COSIM模型的棉花冷害预测研究[J].棉花学报,2012,24(1):52-61,10.基金项目
国家自然科学基金(30971686) （30971686）
支撑计划课题(2006BAD04B02) （2006BAD04B02）
国家高新技术项目(863)(2007AA10Z228) （863）
