南京师大学报（自然科学版）2011，Vol.34Issue(4)：116-121,6.
基于GKSIM模型的土地利用动态变化控制性模拟与预测——以江苏省为例
GKSIM Based Controlled Simulation and Prediction on the Dynamic Change of Land Use in Jiangsu Province
杨典华1
作者信息
- 1. 首都师范大学三维信息获取与应用教育部重点实验室,北京100048
- 折叠
摘要
Abstract
Based on the dynamic variation of the main driving forces and their contributions to land use change, CKSIM model was applied to the controlled simulation and prediction on the dynamic change of land use in Jiangsu province in order to explore future land use tendency under the influence of the main factors; GDP, population and industrial structure. The results indicated that cultivated land and construction land changed most markedly with the growth of GDP and population which manifested as the two respects: cultivated land had a decreasing trend and decreased most than other kinds of land while construction land had an increasing trend and increased most. The main reasons were as follows; the rapid economic development of Jiangsu province led to rapid industrialization and construction land were increased by occupying great amounts of cultivated land. The prediction of the relationship between the three main driving forces ( GDP, total population and industrial structure) and land use change could effectively avoid multistep error produced by projection on the time dimension and display the land use dynamic change in Jiangsu province.关键词
土地利用/动态变化/GKSIM模型/模拟/预测Key words
and use/dynamic change/GKSIM model/simulation/prediction分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
杨典华..基于GKSIM模型的土地利用动态变化控制性模拟与预测——以江苏省为例[J].南京师大学报（自然科学版）,2011,34(4):116-121,6.
