南水北调与水利科技2012，Vol.10Issue(1)：40-44,5.DOI:10.3724/SP.J.1201.2012.01040
珠江梧州水文站枯季月径流预报
Research on Monthly Runoff Forecast During Dry Season at Wuzhou Hydrological Station in Pearl River
摘要
Abstract
The flow discharge at the Wuzhou hydrological station plays a key role in suppressing the salinity intrusion during dry season across the Pearl River Delta The abundance of water from the upstream of the Wuzhou station is directly related to the success of integrated water regulation in the Pearl River watershed. Therefore, it is of importance to perform monthly runoff forecast at this sta-tioa Based on the monthly runoff data during the dry season (October to March), the combined method of the stepwise regression to obtain the trend and period terms from the time-series runoff data and the auto regression to obtain the stochastic term from the time-series runoff data was used to develop the runoff forecast model at the Wuzhou station. The results showed that the combined method provides good prediction accuracy, e. G. ,the forecast accuracy reached the first grade in January, and the second grade in the remaining months. Consequently, this method can be used practically in hydrological forecasting.关键词
枯季/径流预报/逐步回归/自回归/珠江Key words
dry season/runoff forecast/ stepwise regression/auto regression/Pearl River分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
胡宇丰,张峰,李匡,徐海卿,李琳,雷晓辉..珠江梧州水文站枯季月径流预报[J].南水北调与水利科技,2012,10(1):40-44,5.基金项目
中国水利水电科学研究院科研专项(资集1037) （资集1037）
