农业现代化研究2012，Vol.33Issue(1)：125-128,4.
汉江上游近50年降水序列变化及其干旱预测研究
Study on Precipitation Change and Drought Prediction in Upper Reaches of Hanjiang River During the Last 50 Years
摘要
Abstract
Monthly precipitation were analyzed based on data from 9 representative hydrologic stations in the upper reaches of the Hanjiang River during 1961-2009 by using nonparametric test method (Mann-kendall method) and linear regression equation. The results show that precipitation reduced obviously during the last 49 years in the upper reaches of the Hanjiang River and drought frequencies show increase trend. Enough attention should be paid for it. The monthly rainfall data in this region from 1961 to 2000 were applied to set up the GM (1.1) model for the 9 hydrologic station. The drought time of the region in the future was forecasted. Through the residual test and Posterior poor inspection, the models' definition is so accurate that the essential result approaches the factual data. Therefore, these results are of great scientific guiding in drought resisting, disaster alleviation and agricultural production over the upper reaches of the Hanjiang River.关键词
降水量/GM(1,1)/干旱预测/汉江上游Key words
precipitation/ GM(1,1)/ drought forecast/ Upper Reaches of the Hanjiang River分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
孟婵,殷淑燕..汉江上游近50年降水序列变化及其干旱预测研究[J].农业现代化研究,2012,33(1):125-128,4.基金项目
国家社会科学基金重点项目"历史时期汉江上游极端性气候水文事件及其社会影响研究"(编号:11AZS009) （编号:11AZS009）
国家自然科学基金重点项目"汉江上游(南水北调水源厂)万年尺度古洪水水文学研究"(编号:41030637) （南水北调水源厂）
中央高校基本科研业务费专项基金项目"气候变化对陕西省经济作物物候影响研究"(编号:GK201002015). （编号:GK201002015）
