气候变化研究进展2012，Vol.8Issue(1)：28-34,7.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1673-1719.2012.01.005
21世纪珠江流域水文过程对气候变化的响应
Responses of Hydrological Processes to the Climate Change in the Zhujiang River Basin in the 21st Century
摘要
Abstract
Discharge from 1961 to 2099 through the outlet of Xijiang River, the biggest sub-basin of Zhujiang River, was simulated by hydrological model HBV-D using the precipitation and temperature projected from three climate models (GCMs) under three greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenarios. The following conclusions can be drawn through analyzing the changes of water resources and flood frequency relative to the reference period of 1961-1990. Annual precipitation and annual runoff will increase after 2050. In addition, Area average precipitation and runoff show increasing trends in each month from May to October, but decreasing trends from December to next February based on the results of Mann-Kendall trend analysis. More and larger floods will occur in future. Potential increased runoff during the low flow season before 2030 will ease the pressure of water demand, but the increased runoff in the high flow season, and more frequent and larger floods will bring more pressure on flood controlling after 2050. These impacts of climate change on hydrological processes in the Zhujiang River basin should be considered when planning adaptation and mitigation strategies.关键词
珠江流域/HBV-D水文模型/洪水/枯水/预估Key words
Zhujiang River basin/ hydrological model HBV-D/ flood/ low flow/ projection引用本文复制引用
刘绿柳,姜彤,徐金阁,翟建青,罗勇..21世纪珠江流域水文过程对气候变化的响应[J].气候变化研究进展,2012,8(1):28-34,7.基金项目
国家重点基础研究发展计划(2010CB428400) （2010CB428400）
