水科学进展2012，Vol.23Issue(1)：29-37,9.DOI:32.1309.P.20120104.2012.005
应用统计降尺度方法预估江淮流域未来降水
Estimation of precipitation under future climate scenarios in the Yangtze-Huaihe region using statistical downscaling
摘要
Abstract
Statistical downscaling is widely used to make up the shortcomings of General Circulation Model (GCM) in simulating regional climate change. A statistical downscaling model with GCM precipitation is developed for the Yangtze-Huaihe region. Using the NCEP/NCAR re-analysis data and the observed precipitation of 1960-2009 at 52 meteorological stations in the region, a model linking 10 large-scale atmospheric variables (predictors) to the local precipitation amount is proposed. A combined approach of Principal Component Analysis ( PCA) and Support Vector Machine (SVM) is used for training the model to establish a statistical relationship between the 10 predictors and the local precipitation amount for the Yangtze-Huaihe region. The results show that the model can significantly reduce the precipitation error compared to that of using GCM simulations directly, and the monthly and annual variations in precipitation can be better described. The model is then applied to the HadCM3 simulation of the SRES A2 scenario for three time periods 2020-2039, 2050-2069 and 2080-2099. Both seasonal and annual variations in the projected future precipitation for the Yangtze-Huaihe region are analyzed. Compared to the baseline (1960-1999) period, a relatively small increase in precipitation could be expected to the climate change during the period 2020-2099. Among which, the highest increase in the precipitation rate of 3. 6 mm/a could be in the period 2080-2099. The seasonal precipitation changes are different from each other during the three time periods.关键词
统计降尺度/降水/支持向量机/江淮流域Key words
statistical downscaling/ precipitation/ support vector machine/ Yangtze-Huaihe region分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
刘向培,王汉杰,何明元..应用统计降尺度方法预估江淮流域未来降水[J].水科学进展,2012,23(1):29-37,9.基金项目
国家重点基础研究发展计划(973)资助项目(2011 CB403202) （973）
中国科学院寒区旱区陆面过程与气候变化重点实验室开放基金(LPCC201102) （LPCC201102）
