西安工程大学学报2011，Vol.25Issue(6)：893-896,4.
中国高校生源数量分析及预测
Analysis and prediction of the amount of college suitable candidates in China
摘要
Abstract
Based on the population census data by age in 2000 and the data of higher educational enrollments released by ministry of education of the People's Republic of China, the method of the amount of young man with suitable age to entry college is given, and the higher educational enrollments in the past 17 years is analyzed. Subsequently, based on the national macro developing strategy and " National education reform and development of long-term planning programs (2010-2020) " , the enrollments are predicted in the following 8 years. As a result , a conclusion is obtained that the higher educational enrollments will hold steady at about 7 500 000 over the next 8 years, and it indicates that the college enrollments will not decrease sharply.关键词
高校生源/高校招生数量/高等教育/年龄结构/状态估计Key words
suitable candidates of higher education/ college enrollments/ higher education/ age structure/ state estimation分类
社会科学引用本文复制引用
马丽丽,陈金广,薛纪文..中国高校生源数量分析及预测[J].西安工程大学学报,2011,25(6):893-896,4.基金项目
陕西省教育厅科研计划项目(2010JK565) （2010JK565）
西安工程大学博士科研启动基金(BS1111) （BS1111）
2010年西安工程大学计算机公共基础课程教学团队计划项目 （）
