中国空间科学技术2012，Vol.32Issue(1)：60-65,76,7.DOI:10.3780/j.issn.1000-758X.2012.01.009
考虑人及组织因素的航天工程项目风险分析模型
Risk Analysis Model of Aerospace Engineering Project Incorporating Human and Organization Factors
摘要
Abstract
The mechanism of project risk caused by human and organization factors was revealed, and a model of risk analysis for aerospace engineering project incorporating the human and organization factors based on the mechanism was proposed. Based on the model, the quality of spacecraft component manufacturing considering the human and organization factors was evaluated, and then the consistency probability between the operational task quality and the different types of defect was assessed, and the defect severity was calculated according to Poisson distribution. Finally, the prior default rate of component was updated based on Bayesian theorem. The model framework was validated by an aerospace engineering project with modified data.关键词
风险分析/人及组织因素/贝叶斯定理/航天工程项目Key words
Risk analysis/Human and organization factors/Bayesian theorem Aerospace engineering project引用本文复制引用
孟华,麦强,安实..考虑人及组织因素的航天工程项目风险分析模型[J].中国空间科学技术,2012,32(1):60-65,76,7.基金项目
国家自然科学基金(70903017),高等学校博士点基金(20092302120012),黑龙江省自然科学基金(QC2010087)资助项目 （70903017）
