中国人口·资源与环境2012，Vol.22Issue(3)：32-36,5.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1002-2104.2012.03.006
气候变暖等因素对山东省种植业产出的影响
Impacts of Climate Warming on the Growth of Plant Farming Output
摘要
Abstract
Based on the panel data of meteorology and plant farming from 1990 to 2009 in 40 counties of Shandong Province, by using the method of output growth decomposition, this paper established production functions of plant farming and analyzed the impacts of climate and non-climate factors on the output of that in Shandong Province as well as the contribution of each variable to the growth of plant farming output. The result indicated that the influences of climate factors on the growth of the total output in 40 counties of Shandong Province is - 11.03% from 1990 to 2009. Keeping the other conditions unchanged, with the average temperature rising up It! , the total output of plant farming correspondingly reduced by 2. 2% , while the growth of the total output reduced by 1. 48%. Increasing temperature was the most obvious contributor which offected the plant farming output in the northwest and Lunan region of Shandong Province. Precipitation had significant impacts on the output of plant farming by 16. 86% . Fertilizers and pesticides were the top two contributors to the growth of plantfarming output. The decrease of agricultural labor forces, especially the labor forces of plant farming, started to have obvious impacts on the output of plant farming, with the growth of output of plant farming reduced by 5.90%. The impact of technical progress was in decline. Climate warming brought negative effects on planting farming in Shandong Province. The present study dissected various elements via the production functions, especially the contribution of climate warming to planting farming, which will be useful for further food security in Shandong Province.关键词
气候变暖/种植业产出/山东省/面板数据Key words
climate wanning/ output of plant farming/ Shandong Province/ panel data分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
曹广平,陈永福..气候变暖等因素对山东省种植业产出的影响[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2012,22(3):32-36,5.基金项目
国家科技支撑计划项目"农产品数量安全智能分析与预警关键技术支撑系统及示范"(编号:2009BADA9B00). （编号:2009BADA9B00）
