大气科学2012，Vol.36Issue(3)：539-550,12.DOI:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2011.11094
基于Lorenz系统提取数值模式可预报分量的初步试验
The Preliminary Analysis of the Procedures of Extracting Predicable Components in Numerical Model of Lorenz System
摘要
Abstract
The authors have proposed to extract the predictable components to make prediction in the numerical model which has nonlinear chaos. The method of extracting predicable components was introduced in a simple numerical model, and the numerical experiments were done based on Lorenz system. In the experiment, the authors found that the velocity of initial error increase is different for different components in the phase space, and there are some particular directions with slow error increase. That is to say, there exist predictable components which are relatively stable and insensitive to initial perturbation. The numerical model of the predictable components was established by extracting predicable components based on the evolution of the eigenvalues of the tangent operator error, and projecting the model variables onto the substrates. On the basis of these, the impacts of chaotic states, the errors of model parameters, and the external random noise on extracting the predicable components were studied. And the authors found that the numerical model of the predicable components has a better forecasting skill关键词
数值预报/可预报分量/奇异值分解/Lorenz系统Key words
numerical prediction/predictable components/singular value decomposition/Lorenz system分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
王启光,封国林,郑志海,支蓉,丑纪范..基于Lorenz系统提取数值模式可预报分量的初步试验[J].大气科学,2012,36(3):539-550,12.基金项目
国家自然科学基金资助项目40930952、41105070和41105055,全球变化重大研究计划2012CB955902和公益性行业(气象)科研专项GYHY201106016 （气象）
