电力系统及其自动化学报2012，Vol.24Issue(2)：124-127,147,5.
气候多变型区域配电系统可靠性预测
Reliability Prediction of Distribution System in Weather-changeable Regions
孙京锋 1周步祥 1林楠 2徐飞 1林波 1王学友1
作者信息
- 1. 四川大学电气信息学院,成都610065
- 2. 四川电力职业技术学院,成都610071
- 折叠
摘要
Abstract
To investigate effects of weather condition on reliability prediction of distribution network system, the reliability evaluation of hidden Markov chain (HMC) model was established based on the consideration of three weather conditions. The HMC model was introduced considering the complicated relation with dynamic characteristics and operational state of the equipment, and the hidden state transition process was identified through monitoring the dynamic characteristics of the equipment with multiple observation sequences. Furthermore, Chapman-Kolmogorov equation was adopted to infer the operation reliability level of the equipment. Finally, an example proved the availability of the proposed model and algorithm.关键词
配电网/运行可靠性/隐马尔科夫链模型/状态变迁/随机过程Key words
distribution network/ operation reliability/ hidden Markov chain(HMC)/ state transition/ random process分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
孙京锋,周步祥,林楠,徐飞,林波,王学友..气候多变型区域配电系统可靠性预测[J].电力系统及其自动化学报,2012,24(2):124-127,147,5.
