东南大学学报（自然科学版）2012，Vol.42Issue(3)：468-472,5.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1001-0505.2012.03.014
呼吸道传染病空气传播的感染概率的预测模型
Prediction of risk of airborne transmitted diseases
摘要
Abstract
In order to improve the understanding of the risk of airborne infection and its predicting method, the vehicle of airborne transmitted diseases and risk prediction model of airborne transmitted diseases in an enclosed space are reviewed. Droplet nuclei, the residues of droplets, are considered as the vehicle of airborne transmitted diseases, because they can suspend in air for long time due to small size (less than 5 μm). Based on the fact, the Wells-Riley model were derived and verified. The risk estimation models, especially the Welk-Riley model and its modifications, are introduced. Furthermore, the influence parameters such as ventilation rate and quanta generation on the risk are discussed. For the most cases, ventilation can reduce the risk obviously; however, it is not sufficient to deal with some extremely super spreading events. In such cases, other methods such as PPE (personal protective equipments) are needed.关键词
空气传染病/感染概率/Wells-Riley模型Key words
airborne transmitted diseases/ risk/ Wells-Riley model分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
钱华,郑晓红,张学军..呼吸道传染病空气传播的感染概率的预测模型[J].东南大学学报（自然科学版）,2012,42(3):468-472,5.基金项目
"十二五"国家科技支撑计划资助项目(2011BAJ03B10)、国家自然科学基金资助项目(50808038)、江苏省自然科学基金资助项目(BK2009289). （2011BAJ03B10）
