干旱地区农业研究2012，Vol.30Issue(2)：247-254,8.
晋北地区降水量时空变化及突变分析
Analysis of characteristics of precipitation variation and mutation in Northern Shanxi
摘要
Abstract
Based on the monthly precipitation data from 1960-2008 of 18 observation stations of Northern Shanxi, the spatial-temporal variation characteristics of precipitation are analyzed. The main results are as follows: The annual precipitation and the precipitation in summer and autumn is holistically in an increase trend, while the precipitation in spring and winter is holistically in a decrease trend. From the variations of spatial distribution, the annual and the seasonal precipitation increases gradually from the north to the south. The linear trend coefficients of annual precipitation are negative in most stations, but positive for the whole study area in spring, only positive in Fanshi in summer, negative in the southwestern region and positive in the northeastern region in autumn, with an equipotent probability of positive and negative in winter. The jumps are examined with methods including Mann-Kendall test, moving t-test and cumulative anomaly. The results show that an obvious abrupt change point in 1979 can be detected. From that time on, the annual precipitation begins to decline evidently. The abrupt change time in spring is near 1964 and 1991, while it is 1996 in summer.关键词
晋北地区/降水/突变分析Key words
Northern Shanxi/ precipitation/ mutation analysis分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
蔡霞,蔡琳,李春华,吴占华..晋北地区降水量时空变化及突变分析[J].干旱地区农业研究,2012,30(2):247-254,8.基金项目
山西省气象局青年课题(SXKQNQH20116255) （SXKQNQH20116255）
