管理工程学报2012，Vol.26Issue(2)：106-112,7.
预测信息分享对制造商开通直销渠道的影响
The Effect of Forecast Information Sharing on Manufacturer's Launching Direct Channels
摘要
Abstract
An increased number of manufacturers are conducting sales through their direct online channels. Direct online sales channel strategy poses opportunities and threats. Different manufacturers have adopted this strategy differently. For instance, Sony and Panasonic embrace this strategy, whereas JVC and NEC aie reluctant to do so. This study tries to help understand why these manufacturers have different interests in adopting the online sales channel strategy from the information sharing perspective. Since the retailer has the option of sharing customer demand information with the manufacturer, the primary goal of this research is to investigate the effect of retailer's information advantage on the choice of the manufacturer establishing direct online sales channels.The research analyzes the decisions of all supply chain members based on the asymmetric information game theory. Firstly, the single channel model of supply chain is developed based an the dynamic game theory under the conditions of no information sharing and information sharing. Similarly, the dual channel model of supply chain is established and the optimal decisions of the retailer and the manufacturer are obtained. Then, the value of retailer sharing information for the retailer and the manufacturer are obtained in single channel and dual channel supply chains. Furthermore, the choices of the manufacturer on establishing direct online channels are analyzed. At last, a mechanism of information sharing for compensating the retailer is developed and its effect on a manufacturer's decision of launching direct online channel is analyzed.This paper demonstrates four interesting results. Firstly, in the single channel supply chain, the manufacturer's profit is higher when information is shared than when information is not shared. However, the retailer's profit in information sharing is lower than its profit in no information sharing, and the retailer has no incentives to share its forecast information with the manufacturer. Secondly, the manufacturer launches the direct channel when the forecast accuracy of its retailer is so low that the retailer has no incentive to share its forecast information with the manufacturer. Thirdly, the mechanism of information sharing for compensating its retailer will encourage the retailer to share information with the manufacturer. Fourthly, although the manufacturer needs to bear cost in order to obtain retailer's forecast information, they will still have incentives to launch the online direct sales channel.关键词
供应链/直销渠道/信息分享/预测精度Key words
supply chain/ direct channel/ information sharing / forecast accuracy分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
聂佳佳..预测信息分享对制造商开通直销渠道的影响[J].管理工程学报,2012,26(2):106-112,7.基金项目
国家自然科学基金重大资助项目(71090402) （71090402）
国家自然科学基金资助项目(71101120) （71101120）
教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金资助项目(10YJC630183) （10YJC630183）
中央高校基本科研业务专项资金资助(SWJTU11BR059) （SWJTU11BR059）
