广西科学2012，Vol.19Issue(2)：129-133,5.
中国三峡水库对上下游地区降水影响的概率研究
Probabilistic Study on Influence of Three Gorges Reservoir in China on Precipitation of Its Upstream and Downstream Regions
摘要
Abstract
The precipitations in 35 world largest volume reservoirs were analyzed in order to find out their precipitation patterns. The precipitation patterns were obtained from the analyses of the annual and monthly precipitations of 224 upstream and downstream regions around the 35 reservoirs between predam and postdam periods. The results show that those reservoirs have increased the average annual precipitation especially in downstream regions,no influence on the average monthly precipitation,increased the minimal precipitation, and decreased the maximal precipitation. This study reveals huge advantage of world largest reservoirs for their surrounding regions because they can help to resist to the extreme precipitations, which provides probabilistic evidence to explore possible impacts of the Three Gorges Reservoir on the precipitation patterns of its surrounding areas. At the best scenario, the Three Gorges Reservoir would have 17/35 chances to increase the annual precipitations in its both upstream and downstream regions, the chance to increase the minimal precipitation to 120 % from 10% , and the chance to decrease the maximal precipitation up to 20%. At the worst scenario, the Three Gorges Reservoir would have 3/35 chances to decrease the annual precipitations in both upstream and down-stream regions and 2/27 chances to decrease the annual precipitations in downstream regions, and the chance to decrease the minimal precipitation up to 20% in downstream regions.关键词
降水/水库/周边地区/三峡水库Key words
precipitation/ reservoirs/ surrounding location/Three Gorges Reservoir分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
严少敏,吴光..中国三峡水库对上下游地区降水影响的概率研究[J].广西科学,2012,19(2):129-133,5.基金项目
广西自然科学基金项目(10-046-06,2010GXNSFF013003,11-031-11)资助. （10-046-06,2010GXNSFF013003,11-031-11）
