湖泊科学2012，Vol.24Issue(2)：252-258,7.
基于SD模型分析的环鄱阳湖地区发展模式探讨
Development pattern of Lake Poyang Region based on the system dynamic model
摘要
Abstract
System dynamics (SD) model is suitable for the simulation of the complex issues of regional development. Based on the analysis of the relationship among the sub-systems, the various elements of Lake Poyang Region system, the SD model is construc-ted, and 4 development scenarios are simulated to reveal the characteristics of regional development. Results show that the inertia development pattern not only leads to the slow pace of development, but also results in serious ecological and environmental issues; the pattern of high growth with low environment input maintain rapid economic growth but will lead to a greater damage of environ-ment; meanwhile,the pattern of high growth and high environmental input can maintain the high speed growth of economy and solve the pollution caused by economic growth through increased investment in environmental protection; the industrial upgrading pattern emphasizing on economic reslrucluring, can ensure a relatively rapid economic development and maintain the virtuous cycle of regional ecology and environment. Account of regional characteristics of Lake Poyang Region and the advantages and disadvanta-ges of each scenario, the recommended development pattern is put forward in this paper to achieve a balance between the economic growth and regional ecology and environment.关键词
SD模型/环鄱阳湖地区/发展模式/情景分析Key words
System dynamic model/ Lake Poyang Region/ development pattern/ scenario analysis引用本文复制引用
吴威,吴松,陈爽..基于SD模型分析的环鄱阳湖地区发展模式探讨[J].湖泊科学,2012,24(2):252-258,7.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(40801052)和江西省经济社会发展重大课题项目联合资助 （40801052）
