电力系统保护与控制2012，Vol.40Issue(11)：70-75,6.
基于改进熵值法和限幅小波的大波动地区短期负荷预测
Short load forecasting in heavy wave areas based on improved entropy method and limited wavelet analysis
杨浩 1何茜 1殷家敏2
作者信息
- 1. 输配电装备及系统安全与新技术国家重点实验室(重庆大学电气工程学院),重庆400044
- 2. 重庆市长寿供电局,重庆401220
- 折叠
摘要
Abstract
In order to make the short load prediction in heavy wave areas more accurate, loads are divided into three types--thebasic load, the impact load and the out-put of small hydro-power plants. Meanwhile the impact load and the out-put of small hydro-power plants are predicted and the limited wavelet analysis is applied to the forecast model. First, influential factors of the impact load and the out-put of small hydro-power plants are found. Because signals fluctuate fiercely, the historical data must be screened through the improved entropy method. Then, the theory of wavelet decomposition is used to process signals after choosing a proper wavelet. Low frequency coefficients are imposed restrictions on the amplitude value and the great modulus is sifted. Through this method unpredictable high frequency coefficients are abandoned and low frequency coefficients which represent the discipline of signals are retained. Finally, signals are reconstructed through the wavelet theory and predictions are obtained through the linear neural network model and the AR1MA model. According to experiments the forecasting based on single-layer limited wavelet analysis is better than the result based on single-layer wavelet analysis for predictions of the impact load and the out-put of small hydro-power plants. That means the improved entropy method and the limited wavelet analysis have a good practical value in improving the precision of predictions of the impact load and the out-put of small hydro-power plants.关键词
冲击负荷/改进熵值法/极大模值/规则性系数/限幅小波/线性神经网络/差分回归-滑动平均模型Key words
impact load/ improved entropy method/ great modulus/ regularity coefficient/ limited wavelet/ linear neural network/ difference regression-moving average model分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
杨浩,何茜,殷家敏..基于改进熵值法和限幅小波的大波动地区短期负荷预测[J].电力系统保护与控制,2012,40(11):70-75,6.
