计算机应用与软件2012，Vol.29Issue(5)：13-15,19,4.
改进的GM(1,1)模型在中长期负荷预测中的应用
THE APPLICATION OF IMPROVED GM (1,1) MODEL IN LONG-MIDDLE TERM LOAD FORECASTING
摘要
Abstract
The gray CM (1,1) model does not fit long-middle term power load forecasting, in light of this feature, the improvement has been made, a new model is proposed, which is the weighted combination of gray correlation forecasting model with parameter correction. In the model, segmented data forecasting is adopted. At the same time, in order to prevent the forecasting data from rapid growth and leading to excessive error, every segmented model is performed the parameter correction. Then the forecasting data of revised models are made the weighted combination. In this way, not only certain factors influencing the load can be mutually offset or weakened, the excessive growth of forecasting data is also prevented, which makes the forecasting more accurate. The effectiveness of the proposed model is demonstrated by a load forecasting test in a certain area. The result shows that the model is useful in both theory and in practice.关键词
负荷预测/灰色关联/加权组合/参数修正Key words
Load forecasting/ Gray correlation/ Weighted combination/ Parameter correction分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
李永在,范成贤,王焱,王端..改进的GM(1,1)模型在中长期负荷预测中的应用[J].计算机应用与软件,2012,29(5):13-15,19,4.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(60973042) （60973042）
山东省自然科学基金项目(Y2008F61,Y2008G20) （Y2008F61,Y2008G20）
