机械科学与技术2012，Vol.31Issue(4)：664-668,673,6.
基于威布尔概率统计分析方法的设备可靠性预测研究
Equipment Reliability Prediction Research Based on Weibull Probability and Statistical Analysis Method
刘文彬 1徐微 1王庆锋1
作者信息
- 1. 北京化工大学化工安全教育部工程研究中心,北京100029
- 折叠
摘要
Abstract
With the failure data of equipment or parts,the reliability prediction is studied by using Weibull probability and statistical analysis method.First,the scattered condition of failure data is analyzed based on the Weibull probability plot to judge the single Weibull or mixed Weibull model must be established.Secondly,the parameters of model are estimated： for the single Weibull model,the least-squares method of y on x to minimize the sum of squares of the vertical residuals and the least-squares method of x on y minimize the sum of squares of the horizontal residuals are presented to give the selected basis of them;for the mixed Weibull model,the expectation maximization（namely EM） algorithms of repeated iteration to convergence is presented.Finally,the two groups of failure data are applied to show that the model selection principles and the parameter estimation are feasible and effective,and the reliability prediction of equipment is achievable.关键词
单个威布尔模型/混合威布尔模型/最小二乘法/最大期望值算法/可靠性预测Key words
single weibull model/mixed weibull model/least-squares method/expectation maximization algorithms/reliability prediction分类
机械制造引用本文复制引用
刘文彬,徐微,王庆锋..基于威布尔概率统计分析方法的设备可靠性预测研究[J].机械科学与技术,2012,31(4):664-668,673,6.
