林业科学2012，Vol.48Issue(5)：61-66,6.
用实物期权法确定日本落叶松纸浆林的最优轮伐期
Optimal Rotation Age of Larix kaempferi Pulpwood Plantation by Real Options Approach
摘要
Abstract
The economic benefits and optimal rotation age of Larix kaempferi pulpwood plantation were analyzed under stochastic pulpwood price using real options approach in order to more effectively management to L. kaempferi pulpwood plantation in northern sub-tropical alpine area. Flexible rotation age and threshold price to different stand age of different site index plantation were developed. The result indicated that: first, the optimal rotation age of L. kaempferi plantation in site index 15,17 , 19,21 were 25 ,23,21 and 19 a respectively as the current pulpwood price equals 500 yuan·m-3, and the shortest rotation age were 23, 20,17 and 15 a when face to better price. Second, Wait option should be the optimum strategy in any pulpwood price level when the stand age lower than the shortest rotation age.关键词
日本落叶松/实物期权法/二项式模型/均值回复过程Key words
Larix kaempferi/ real options approach/ binomial model/ mean reverting process分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
李子敬,张守攻,孙晓梅,陈东升,李忠国..用实物期权法确定日本落叶松纸浆林的最优轮伐期[J].林业科学,2012,48(5):61-66,6.基金项目
林业公益性行业科研专项经费项目(201104027). （201104027）
